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Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to energize a Labour conference demonstrating the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the words met with rapturous applause as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Shift of Stance & Settled Debates

Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the 2019 national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on the EU

However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people by which young people can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.

David Lammy has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again by warning rejoining a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he believes a customs pact is now significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Strategy & Strategic Calculations

This strange and concerning document asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of deciding that this makes the US an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Echo of 2018

This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch to become leader but merely an attempt to keep open the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is among a clutch of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger and A Prudent Memory

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be wise of him to remember the effect that a short phrase had for him in 2018. There are options for a big offer on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.